iMcDermott Will & Emery Senior Advisor Jon Decker updates a state-by-state examination of the 33 U.S. Senate election races in 2012. Since the last forecast, Jon’s prediction on the status of two races has shifted, while another two remain too close to call. Prior to joining McDermott, Jon was a White House correspondent for Reuters and has been a member of the White House Press Corps since 1995. The information expressed in this piece contains the author predictions (not the Firm’s), which are based on current information and forecasting, and are not intended to be an endorsement of any candidate.
Not surprisingly, less than two months after the last forecast concerning the battle for control of the U.S. Senate went out, the map has already changed. As a reminder, Democrats currently maintain a slim 53–47 majority in the upper chamber. But based on the changes below, Republicans appear to have some momentum.
In the 2012 cycle, there are 33 Senate races on the ballot. Twenty-three of those are currently held by Democrats, 10 are for open seats. As things stand, there are eight races that can be considered truly competitive. Two races are simply too close to call.
What follows is an updated analysis and forecast of each of those Senate races. Although much can change over the next eight months, this is an educated forecast based on current information as to the way the Senate map would look if the Presidential election were held today.
|
State |
Prediction |
|
Arizona |
Open seat, leans Republican (six-term Rep. Jeff Flake is expected to retain the seat now held by Sen. Jon Kyl) |
|
California |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Dianne Feinstein is expected to easily win her fourth full term in the Senate) |
|
Connecticut |
Open seat, likely Democrat (three-term Rep. Chris Murphy and former Connecticut Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz are competing for the Democratic nomination in this Democratic-leaning state) |
|
Delaware |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Tom Carper is expected to be re-elected to serve his third term) |
|
Florida |
Toss-up (Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is expected to face a tough challenge from Republican Rep. Connie Mack IV) |
|
Hawaii |
Open seat, leans Democrat (Rep. Mazie Hirono and former Rep. Ed Case are running for the Democratic nomination, and the winner will be the favorite going into the general election) |
|
Indiana |
Likely Republican (although Sen. Richard Lugar will face a stiff primary challenge from a Tea Party member, he is expected to win a seventh term in the Senate; if he loses the nomination, Rep. Joe Donnelly of South Bend could win) |
|
Maine |
Open seat, toss-up (Sen. Olympia Snowe announced on February 28, 2012, that she will not seek re-election; four Democrats who already announced they're running could be joined by former Gov. John Baldacci; popular former Independent Governor Angus King has also announced a bid to succeed Snowe; the Republican bench is not very strong) |
|
Maryland |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Ben Cardin will easily win his second term) |
|
Massachusetts |
Toss-up (Democrats are betting that former consumer finance watchdog Elizabeth Warren can take down Sen. Scott Brown) |
|
Michigan |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Debbie Stabenow is still the favorite despite the state's economic morass) |
|
Minnesota |
Safe Democrat (No big Republican has come forward to threaten popular Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s prospects for re-election) |
|
Mississippi |
Safe Republican (Democrats have no credible candidate to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker) |
|
Missouri |
Toss-up (Despite not having a consensus candidate, Republicans are confident they can undermine Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s good-government reputation and flip this seat) |
|
Montana |
Toss-up (Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg are waging one of the most competitive Senate races in the country) |
|
Nebraska |
Open seat, likely Republican (with Sen. Ben Nelson retiring, this should be a pick-up for Republicans; State Attorney General Jon Bruning is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, while former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey, who hasn’t been on a Nebraska ballot since 1994, has indicated he will run for his old Senate seat) |
|
Nevada |
Leans Republican (Polls give the edge to interim Republican Sen. Dean Heller in a tight race over Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley) |
|
New Jersey |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Bob Menendez, who takes nothing for granted, is an almost certain lock to win re-election) |
|
New Mexico |
Open seat, leans Democrat (in a race to fill the open seat of retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman, most polls show Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich with a consistent lead over Republican ex-Rep. Heather Wilson) |
|
New York |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is expected to cruise to victory and win her first full six-year term in the Senate) |
|
North Dakota |
Open seat, toss-up (Democratic State Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp will face Republican Rep. Rick Berg in a race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad) |
|
Ohio |
Leans Democrat (Sen. Sherrod Brown is demonstrating strength in his re-election race with most polls showing him comfortably ahead of Republican Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel) |
|
Pennsylvania |
Likely Democrat (Republicans still have to choose a nominee to run against Sen. Bob Casey, who appears likely to win a second term) |
|
Rhode Island |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is a lock to win re-election) |
|
Tennessee |
Safe Republican (so far, no Democrat has filed to challenge Republican Sen. Bob Corker, who is growing in stature in the Senate) |
|
Texas |
Open seat, safe Republican (the race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is still shaping up, but Lt. Governor David Dewhurst is seen as the favorite to win the Republican primary and the general election) |
|
Utah |
Safe Republican (Sen. Orrin Hatch is expected to easily retain his seat in this solid-red Republican state, unless he gets tripped up like Sen. Bennett by the Tea Party) |
|
Vermont |
Safe Democrat/Independent (Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, should easily win re-election) |
|
Virginia |
Open seat, toss-up (the race for the open Senate seat between former Governor Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen is a statistical dead heat) |
|
Washington |
Safe Democrat (Sen. Maria Cantwell’s poll numbers are looking strong in her run for re-election) |
|
West Virginia |
Likely Democrat (Sen. Joe Manchin’s poll numbers are so strong that Republicans still lack a candidate) |
|
Wisconsin |
Open seat, toss-up (Democrats have cleared the field for Rep. Tammy Baldwin to run for retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl's seat.; on the Republican side, former U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary and Gov. Tommy Thompson is battling with Tea Party favorite and former Rep. Mark Neumann, to be the Republican nominee) |
|
Wyoming |
Safe Repbulican (Sen. John Barrasso, M.D., has given himself the right prescription to win re-election in this solid Republican state) |
Map 1 shows the current Senate makeup of the 112th Congress.
Map 2 shows the states in which a contested Senate election will take place in 2012.
Map 3 is an educated forecast, based on current information, of the way the map would look if the presidential election were held today. It assumes that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee and that the faltering U.S. economy will not experience a profound turnaround over the next year. One race (Virginia) is too close to call.
Conclusions
Of the eight truly competitive races, six are now held by Democrats. Following are current predictions on the eight toss-up states:
|
State |
Prediction |
|
Florida |
Democrat hold. Sen. Bill Nelson will face a tough challenge from Congressman Connie Mack; the Obama campaign’s concentration on Florida is critical to Nelson’s return. |
|
Maine |
Toss-up. Angus King’s candidacy adds complexity to a race that was thrown wide open by Olympia Snowe's surprise announcement that she won't be seeking a fourth term. Without any polling on the race, it is simply too early to make a forecast. In addition, King has suggested he could caucus on either side of the aisle, depending on the issue. |
|
Massachusetts |
Republican hold. This will be one of the most expensive races in the country. Republican Scott Brown will win a clear majority of Independent voters in the Bay State, but the big question is whether that will be enough to overcome the onslaught of Democrats coming out to vote for President Obama. As part of her election strategy, former Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren Senator is banking on keeping so-called “Reagan Democrats” in her camp. However, Massachusetts voters have consistently told pollsters that it’s good for the state to have an Independent Republican like Scott Brown in Congress.) |
|
Missouri |
Republican pick-up. Sen. Claire McCaskill’s problem is not her opponents, who are not considered to be heavyweight challengers. Her problem is President Obama, who will likely lose the state. It doesn’t help that McCaskill has a public record full of effusive praise for Obama.) |
|
Montana |
Republican pick-up. Rep. Denny Rehberg will likely knock off Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and return this seat to Republicans. |
|
North Dakota |
Republican pick-up. Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp has had state-wide election success, winning her races with at least 62 percent support. But Republican Rep Rick Berg is considered the favorite in this race, thanks in part to the likelihood of Obama's losing the state. North Dakota hasn't voted for a Democrat on the national ticket since 1964. |
|
Virginia |
Too close to call. This race is a true toss-up. Both Tim Kaine and George Allen have won state-wide contests. Republicans have had a number of major victories in recent years—including the race for Governor. However, this race will likely boil down to personalities and turn-out. |
|
Wisconsin |
Republican pick-up. This pick depends on former Governor Tommy Thompson winning the Republican nomination. Should that occur, I see Thompson beating Rep. Tammy Baldwin. |
The Result
Since the last forecast, the race in Massachusetts has moved out of the toss-up category into “leans Republican.” In addition, Missouri has moved from “leans Democrat” to “leans Republican.” If the rest of the forecast holds true, Republicans would regain control of the Senate with a 51–47 majority. (Senate contests in Virginia and Maine are too close to call). Upcoming newsletters will continue to monitor the battle for control of the White House and the Senate.
