2018 MIDTERMS: The Power of Women, Possibility, and Partisan Rancor
The 2018 midterm elections showcased the power of women, both as candidates and as a key voting demographic. The elections represented a new political moment for women candidates who ran and were nominated in record numbers, particularly in the Democratic party. In total, 272 women ran for House, Senate, or Gubernatorial seats this year. This phenomenon is closely linked to the national gender gap of 25 points in favor of Democrats, which played a particularly key role in highly educated suburbs.
Tuesday’s results also illustrate the power of possibility, with voters siding against newly vulnerable incumbents and in favor of anti-establishment candidates across the country. While the ideological middle of both parties was well represented, progressive Democratic candidates like Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Gillum and anti-establishment Republicans Brian Kemp and Kris Kobach still managed to draw considerable attention and support, signaling increasingly credible challenges from the outer wings of both parties.
Additionally, the elections took place on—and in many ways helped stoke—a toxic and perilous political landscape characterized by negative and fear-inspiring advertisements, the long shadow of potential tampering by foreign states, ideologically motivated domestic terror threats, and tense developments with our allies abroad. The partisan rancor shows few signs of abating, especially as the establishment consensus of both parties continues to fray.
U.S. House of Representatives: Democratic Agenda “For the People” … or Anti-Trump Obstructionism?
The House has changed control and Democrats are now in the majority. Gains for Democrats came primarily from suburban districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 like Virginia District 10 (Rep. Barbara Comstock's district), Illinois District 6 (Rep. Peter Roskam's district), and Kansas District 3 (Rep. Kevin Yoder's district). Democrats also made gains in heavily Republican suburbs like Virginia District 7, where Abigail Spanberger defeated Tea Party member Rep. David Brat. Democrats entered with an advantage due to the historically high rate of Republican retirements that surrendered the benefits of incumbency in extremely tight races.
Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) looks likely to ascend to the speaker position over prospective progressive and/or younger challengers. Her speakership would occur despite broader divisions in the party between its long-term establishment leadership and a wave of new candidates and elected officials seeking to pull the party left. The position of minority leader is expected to go to Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who has been on the inside track since Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced his retirement. Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), who has been spirited around the country along with Rep. McCarthy, will also vie for leadership, but is unlikely to pose a major challenge.
The broader change in control also means committee gavels will change hands. It is an open question whether incoming chairs will focus primarily on articulating a new Democratic agenda or on obstructing Trump administration policy goals. Most likely, they will choose a combination of both. Already, the presumptive chairs of two House committees, Energy and Commerce and Oversight and Government Reform—Reps. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) and Elijah Cummings (D-MD), respectively—have indicated they will greatly increase the number and intensity of inquiries into the administration.
The commitments of the ascendant chairman herald an onslaught of oversight across committees, issues, and departments. Committees will likely take particular interest in issues related to the President’s finances, the Mueller investigation, and the affairs of cabinet officials already subject to ethics inquiries. These inquiries will also focus on industries perceived to have aided in the development of controversial regulatory actions, such as the Department of Energy Grid Resiliency Proposal, and recent moves at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to relax methane regulations.
One major policy focus for House Democrats may be climate change and countering the administration’s narrative on energy and environmental regulations. Minority Leader Pelosi recently indicated she may bring back the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming that stood from 2007-2011 and assisted with major cap-and-trade legislation in 2009.
In the midst of these investigations, it is possible that both parties could find common cause on a handful of legislative issues, including infrastructure. Bipartisan legislation on any such issue would require a well-crafted compromise to navigate Democrats’ desire to buck the President, and internal divisions among Republicans on issues like infrastructure funding.
U.S. Senate: Statewide Voting Efforts Boost Republican Candidates
As the results stand, Republicans expanded their Senate majority to 54-46. Republicans defended seats in key states like Arizona and managed to defeat vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana. Democrats did, however, make one pickup in Nevada where Jacky Rosen defeated Dean Heller.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will continue to lead their respective parties in the 116th Congress, but both parties are poised to make changes to committee leadership. Specifically, Republicans will select chairs for two key committees: Foreign Relations, currently led by retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), and Finance, chaired by retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT). Leadership is likely to remain constant on committees with energy and environment jurisdiction: Energy and Natural Resources, and Environment and Public Works. If Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) goes down to defeat, Democrats will select a new ranking member for the Senate Commerce Committee. The position falls to Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), but since she is the ranking member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the position may instead go to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN).
The Senate will likely see considerable action on the 182 executive branch nominees and 71 federal judges that have yet to be confirmed. Additionally, the Senate will likely face a number of high-profile nomination fights, with multiple members of the cabinet reported to be considering leaving in the near future, including Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin. Additionally, the Senate will consider key appointments at EPA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), including the possible formal nomination of Acting EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler, as well as a new FERC commissioner.
While room for agreement will be slim, Senators will have to iron out a compromise on certain must-pass issues such as a debt ceiling increase. Additionally, Senators may work together on legislation to address the nation’s opioid crisis, like Sen. Lamar Alexander’s (R-TN) Opioid Crisis Response Act (2018), which passed 99-1. In the energy space, committees of jurisdiction will likely focus on incentivizing energy infrastructure, protecting key assets from cyberattacks, and new technologies in areas like carbon utilization.
And Outside of Washington
Election Day was also important outside of Washington, DC. 36 states held gubernatorial elections this cycle. Democratic pick-ups (a half-dozen or so) are important for policy developments pushed down to the state level in light of the current administration’s approach to cooperative federalism in regulation. Further, governors elected this time around will still be in office as redistricting proceeds in 2021. Thirty states also elected attorneys general (AG), increasingly important on energy, environment, healthcare and other issues affected by multistate litigation. The four flips to newly-minted Democratic AG’s could have impacts on infrastructure and oil and gas issues in states like Michigan and Colorado.
We also were watching state ballot initiatives very closely this cycle, given the profound implications many had on energy issues in particular. In Washington state, the much-watched Initiative 1631 that would have imposed a $15 carbon tax per metric ton (increasing thereafter by $2 per year until 2035 goals were met) failed by 12 points. A ballot initiative requiring Arizona to source 50 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2030 also failed by almost 40 points. While a similar initiative passed in Nevada, it will have to pass again before becoming operative. In addition, a Colorado ballot measure imposing distance requirements on oil and gas development—an effective ban if passed—failed by about 15 points and did not enjoy the support of either nominee for governor. In each case, the regulated community took the ballot measures seriously and addressed them with sophisticated advocacy campaigns—a sign to come as more issues devolve to the state level.