November 27, 2022

Volume XII, Number 331

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A Preview of California House Races, 2022 Midterm Elections

Updated as of September 26th, 2022. Ratings are from FiveThirtyEight and Cook Political Report

As it has in the past, California has proven to be one of the key states that ultimately determines control of the House. This year is no different, with competitive races in the Central Valley and Orange County, both parties look to pick up seats in a year that is proving to be extremely competitive. See below for an election breakdown of each congressional district for the 2022 Midterm Elections.

District 1:

  • District is rated Strong Republican (R+24)

    • Republican: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 1st district.

    • Democrat: Max Steiner (D)

District 2:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)

    • Democrat: Rep. Jared Huffman (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 2nd district.

    • Republican: Douglas Brower (R)

District 3:

  • Open seat. District is rated as Likely Republican (R+7.8)

    • Republican: Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R)

    • Democrat: Kermit Jones (D)

District 4:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)

    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 5th district.

    • Republican: Matt Brock (R)

District 5:

  • District is rated as Solid Republican (R+23)

    • Republican: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 4th district.

    • Democrat: Michael Barkley (D).

District 6:

  • District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+20)

    • Democrat: Rep. Ami Bera (D) – Incumbent, currently represents 7th district.

    • Republican: Tanika Hamilton (R)

District 7:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)

    • Democrat: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 6th district.

    • Republican: Max Semenenko (R)

District 8:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)

    • Democrat: Rep. John Garamendi (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 3rd district.

    • Republican: Rudy Recile (R)

District 9:

  • District is rated as Likely Democrat (D+5.8) – Key Race

    • Democrat: Rep. Josh Harder (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 10th district.

    • Republican: Tom Patti (R) – San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors

    • Incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) is retiring

  • Cook Political has this race rated “Lean Democrat”

District 10:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+34)

    • Democrat: Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 11th district.

    • Green Party: Michael Ernest Kerr

District 11:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+76)

    • Democrat: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D) – Incumbent, currently represents CA-12.

    • Republican: John Dennis (R)

District 12:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+80)

    • Democrat: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.

    • Republican: Stephen Slauson (R)

District 13:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+3.8) – Key Race

    • Democrat: Assemblyman Adam Gray (D).

    • Republican: John Duarte (R) – Businessman

  • Cook Political has this race rated as a “Toss-up”

District 14:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+45)

    • Democrat: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 15th district.

    • Republican: Not yet determined

District 15:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+54)

    • Leading Democrat: State Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Kevin Mullin (D)

    • Democrat: David Canepa (D)

  • Incumbent Rep. Jackie Speier (D) is retiring, Mullin is very favored to win.

District 16:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)

    • Democrat: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 18th district.

    • Republican: Not yet determined

District 17:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+45)

    • Democrat: Rep. Ro Khanna (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 17th district.

    • Democrat: Rishi Kumar (D)

District 18:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)

    • Democrat: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 19th district.

    • Republican: Peter Hernandez (R)

District 19:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+42)

    • Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 20th district.

    • Republican: Jeff Gorman (R)

District 20:

  • District is rated as Strong Republican (R+31)

    • Republican: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R) – currently represents 23rd district.

    • Democrat: Marisa Wood (R)

District 21:

  • Open Seats, District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+16)

    • Democrat: Rep. Jim Costa (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 16th district.

    • Republican: Michael Maher (R)

    • Former State Assembly Member Connie Conway (R) won the special election to replace Rep. Devin Nunes. Conway will vacate the seat.

District 22:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (D+1) – Key Race

    • Democrat: Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)

    • Republican: Rep. David Valadao (R) – Incumbent, currently represents 21st district

District 23:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+21)

    • Republican: Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 8th district

    • Democrat: Derek Marshall (R)

District 24:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)

    • Democrat: Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 24th district.

    • Republican: Brad Allen (R)

District 25:

  • District is rated as Likely Democrat (D+15)

    • Democrat: Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 36th district.

    • Republican: Brian Hawkins (R)

District 26:

  • District is rated as Solid Democrat (D+17)

    • Democrat: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 26th district.

    • Republican: Matt Jacobs (R)

District 27:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+1) – Key Race

    • Republican: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 25th district.

    • Democrat: Christy Smith (D) – ran against Garcia in 2018 and 2020.

District 28:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)

    • Democrat: Rep. Judy Chu (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 27th district.

    • Republican: Wes Hallman (R)

District 29:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)

    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Tony Cardenas (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 29th district.

    • Democrat: Angelica Maria Duenas (D)

District 30:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+50)

    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 28th district.

    • Democrat: G. Pudlo (D)

District 31:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)

    • Democrat: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 32nd district.

    • Republican: Daniel Bocic Martinez (R)

District 32:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+43)

    • Democrat: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 30th district.

    • Republican: Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R)

District 33:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)

    • Democrat: Rep. Pete Aguilar (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.

    • Republican: John Mark Porter (R)

District 34:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+63)

    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 34th district.

    • Democrat: David Kim (D)

District 35:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)

    • Democrat: Rep. Norma Torres (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.

    • Republican: Mike Cargyle (R)

District 36:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+33)

    • Democrat: Rep. Ted Lieu (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 33rd district.

    • Republican: Joe E. Collins III (R) - Veteran

District 37:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+72)

    • Leading Democrat: State Senator Sydney Kamlager (D)

    • Democrat: Jan Perry (D)

  • Incumbent Rep. Karen Bass (D) has announced that she will retire to run for mayor of Los Angeles.

District 38:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)

    • Democrat: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 38th district.

    • Republican: Eric J. Ching (R)

District 39:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+25)

    • Democrat: Rep. Mark Takano (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 39th district.

    • Republican: TSgt. Aja Smith (R) - Veteran

District 40:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+13) – Key Race

    • Republican Rep. Young Kim (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 39th district.

    • Democrat: Asif Mahmood (D)

  • This district will combine with the 47th district and form the 42nd congressional district.

    • Incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) is retiring.

District 41:

  • District is rated as Likely Republican (R+8) – Key Race

    • Republican: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 42nd district.

    • Democrat: Will Rollins (D)

District 42:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+37)

    • Democrat: Robert Garcia (D) – Long Beach Mayor.

    • Republican: John Briscoe (R)

  • This district is now made up of both the 40th and the 47th congressional district. Both incumbents retiring.

District 43:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+61)

    • Democrat: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 43rd district.

    • Republican: Omar Navarro (R)

District 44:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+55)

    • Democrat: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 44th district.

    • Republican: Paul Jones (R)

District 45:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+5) – Key Race

    • Republican: Rep. Michelle Steel (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 48th district.

    • Democrat: Jay Chen (D) – Veteran

District 46:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+33)

    • Leading Democrat: Rep. Lou Correa (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 46th district.

    • Republican: Christopher J. Gonzalez (R)

District 47:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+7) – Key Race

    • Democrat: Rep. Katie Porter (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 13th district.

    • Republican: former State Assemblyman and Republican Leader Scott Baugh

  • This district will combine with the 40th congressional district to form the 42nd district.

    • Incumbent Alan Lowenthal (D) is retiring.

District 48:

  • District is rated as Strong Republican (R+19)

    • Republican: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) – Incumbent, currently represents the 50th district.

    • Democrat: Stephen Houlahan (D)

District 49:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+10) – Key Race

    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Levin (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 49th district.

    • Republican: Brian Marryott (R)

District 50:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)

    • Democrat: Rep. Scott Peters (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 52nd district.

    • Republican: Cory Gustafon (R)

District 51:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+30)

    • Democrat: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 53rd district.

    • Republican: Stan Caplan (R)

District 52:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+40)

    • Democrat: Rep. Juan Vargas (D) – Incumbent, currently represents the 52nd district.

    • Republican: Tyler Geffeney (R)

© 2022 Foley & Lardner LLPNational Law Review, Volume XII, Number 273
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John R. West Public Affairs Advisor Foley & Lardner LLP
Public Affairs Advisor

Jack West is a public affairs advisor in the Business Law Department with Foley & Lardner LLP.  Jack is based in the Washington DC office. Prior to joining Foley, Jack worked at the Congressional App Challenge serving as the organization’s congressional lead. During his time with the Congressional App Challenge, Jack helped to build a bipartisan coalition of 339 congressional offices participating in the competition and raising awareness around the issue of a lack of youth participation in STEM. Jack worked with Members of Congress in leadership and across the aisle to further efforts...

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Kate M. Kros Public Affairs Advisor Foley & Lardner LLP
Public Affairs Advisor

Kate Kros is a public affairs advisor with Foley & Lardner LLP and supports the firm’s Government Solutions Practice Group with research, communications, advocacy and compliance work, while acting as the Foley PAC assistant treasurer. Kate has a decade of experience supporting nonprofit organizations with federal grassroots advocacy, development and event planning.

Prior to joining Foley, Kate worked at Soapbox Consulting for eight years and led successful advocacy days for over 80 non-profit organizations, trade associations and corporations on an annual or biannual basis. Just...

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Dennis A. Cardoza, public affairs director, Foley Lardner, law firm
Director, Public Affairs

Dennis A. Cardoza is a public affairs director, co-chair of the Federal Public Affairs Practice and chair of the California Public Affairs Practice of Foley & Lardner LLP. He advises a broad range of clients on legislative, regulatory, and public policy and advocacy matters, and has extensive policy experience with respect to water resource, banking, housing, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, education, foreign affairs, and health care issues.

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Jennifer F. Walsh, public affairs director, Foley law firm
Director, Public Affairs

Jennifer F. Walsh is a public affairs director with Foley & Lardner LLP. She has extensive experience in government affairs, including a lengthy career as a senior staffer in the U.S. Congress and the California Legislature, and as a vice president for Federal Government Affairs at a top 20 Fortune 500 health care company. Ms. Walsh has effectively advanced key issues before the United States Senate, House of Representatives and the Administration. She is a member of the firm’s Government & Public Policy Practice.

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