November 29, 2022

Volume XII, Number 333

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November 28, 2022

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What’s Next in Washington? - October 2022 Edition

The 2022 Midterm Elections are a little over one month away and the races are tightening up. Democrats have seen their fortunes improve with a string of legislative victories and improving poll numbers for President Joe Biden. Republicans have continued to message on economic concerns and see a favorable electoral map as their key to victory. As the final sprint begins, we’ve provided an overview of the most competitive House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races this election cycle. We have also provided an update on government funding, energy permitting, and FDA User Fee reauthorization.

See below for greater detail on key issues and more of what’s to come in this month’s edition of What’s Next in Washington? presented by the Foley & Lardner Federal Public Affairs team.

House, Senate, and Gubernatorial race ratings come from FiveThirtyEight Election Forecasts and Cook Political Report.

Previewing Competitive House Races

Democrats currently control the House of Representatives 221 – 212. After losing seats in the 2020 election, Democrats held on to a slim majority in the House. Republicans need to net five seats in the House to flip control. Listed in alphabetical order below are the most competitive House races in the 2022 cycle. Key events, including that of inflation and economic concerns, in addition to the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, have pushed many races into the “Toss-up” category. Additionally, one of the most the key states that will determine control of the House is California. California has multiple toss-up and close races that could result in seat pick-ups for each party. You can learn more about the California House races here.

2022 Competitive House Races

District

Incumbent

PVI

Expert Predictions

Alaska At-Large

Mary Pelota (D)

R, +8

Toss-up

Arizona’s 1st

David Schweikert (R)

R, +2

Toss-up

Arizona’s 2nd

Tom O’Halleran (D)

R, +6

Lean Republican

Arizona’s 6th

Open Seat

R, +3

Lean Republican

California’s 9th

Josh Harder (D)

D, +5

Lean Democrat

California’s 13th

Open Seat

D, +4

Toss-up

California’s 22nd

David Valadao (R)

D, +1

Toss-up

California’s 27th

Mike Garcia (R)

D, +4

Toss-up

California’s 41st

Ken Calvert (R)

R, +3

Lean Republican

California’s 45th

Michelle Steel (R)

D, +2

Lean Republican

California’s 47th

Katie Porter (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

California’s 49th

Mike Levin (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Colorado’s 8th

New Seat

Even

Toss-up

Connecticut’s 5th

Jahana Hayes (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Illinois’ 6th

Sean Casten (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Illinois’ 13th

Open Seat

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Illinois’ 17th

Open Seat

D, +2

Toss-up

Indiana’s 1st

Frank Mrvan (D)

D, +3

Toss-up

Iowa’s 3rd

Cindy Axne (D)

R, +3

Lean Republican

Kansas’ 3rd

Sharice Davids (D)

R, +1

Toss-up

Maine’s 2nd

Jared Golden (D)

R, +6

Toss-up

Michigan’s 3rd

Open Seat

D, +1

Lean Democrat

Michigan’s 7th

Elissa Slotkin (D)

R, +2

Toss-up

Michigan’s 8th

Dan Kildee (D)

R, +1

Toss-up

Minnesota’s 2nd

Angie Craig (D)

D, +1

Toss-up

Nebraska’s 2nd

Don Bacon (R)

Even

Toss-up

Nevada’s 1st

Dina Titus (D)

D, +3

Toss-up

Nevada’s 3rd

Susie Lee (D)

D, +1

Toss-up

Nevada’s 4th

Steven Horsford (D)

D, +3

Toss-up

New Hampshire’s 1st

Chris Pappas (D)

D, +5

Toss-up

New Hampshire’s 2nd

Ann Kuster (D)

D, +2

Lean Democrat

New Jersey’s 3rd

Tom Malinowski (D)

R, +1

Lean Republican

New Mexico’s 2nd

Yvette Herrell (R)

D, +1

Toss-up

New York’s 1st

Open Seat

R, +3

Lean Republican

New York’s 3rd

Open Seat

D, +2

Lean Democrat

New York’s 17th

Sean Patrick Maloney (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

New York’s 18th

Pat Ryan (D)

D, +1

Lean Democrat

New York’s 19th

Open Seat

Even

Toss-up

New York’s 22nd

Open Seat

D, +1

Toss-up

North Carolina’s 1st

Open Seat

D, +2

Lean Democrat

North Carolina’s 13th

Open Seat

Even

Toss-up

Ohio’s 1st

Steve Chabot (R)

D, +2

Toss-up

Ohio’s 9th

Marcy Kaptur (D)

R, +3

Toss-up

Ohio’s 13th

Open Seat

R, +1

Toss-up

Oregon’s 4th

Open Seat

D, +4

Lean Democrat

Oregon’s 5th

Open Seat

D, +2

Toss-up

Oregon’s 6th

New Seat

D, +4

Lean Democrat

Pennsylvania’s 7th

Susan Wild (D)

R, +2

Lean Republican

Pennsylvania’s 8th

Matt Cartwright (D)

R, +4

Toss-up

Pennsylvania’s 17th

Open Seat

Even

Toss-up

Rhode Island’s 2nd

Open Seat

D, +4

Toss-up

Texas’ 15th

Open Seat

R, +1

Lean Republican

Texas’ 28th

Henry Cuellar (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Texas’ 34th

Merged Seat

D, +9

Lean Democrat

Virginia’s 2nd

Elaine Luria (D)

R, +2

Toss-up

Virginia’s 7th

Abigail Spanberger (D)

D, +1

Lean Democrat

Washington’s 3rd

Open Seat

R, +5

Lean Republican

Washington’s 8th

Kim Schrier (D)

D, +1

Toss-up

Wisconsin’s 3rd

Open Seat

R, +4

Lean Republican

Previewing Competitive Senate Races

The Senate is currently held by the Democrats in a 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie breaking vote. Below are the 10 most competitive races this cycle listed in alphabetic order. Key 2020 election swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all have a seat up for election. Republicans need to net only one seat to flip the Senate in their control. While Democrats see retiring Republican incumbents in Biden-won states as their keys to retaining the upper chamber.

2022 Competitive Senate Races

State

Incumbent/Leading Candidates

PVI

Expert Predictions

Arizona

Mark Kelly (D)

D, +5

Toss-up

Colorado

Michael Bennet (D)

D, +10

Lean Democrat

Florida

Marco Rubio (R)

R, +7

Lean Republican

Georgia

Raphael Warnock (D)

Even

Toss-up

New Hampshire

Maggie Hassan (D)

D, +8

Lean Democrat

Nevada

Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

D, +2

Toss-up

North Carolina

Open Seat; Rep. Ted Budd (R), Cheri Beasley (D)

R, +3

Lean Republican

Ohio

Open Seat; J.D. Vance (R), Rep. Tim Ryan (D)

R, +4

Lean Republican

Pennsylvania

Open Seat; Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), Mehmet Oz (R)

D, +6

Lean Democrat

Wisconsin

Ron Johnson (R)

R, +1

Toss-up

Gubernatorial Race Outlook

Listed in order of most competitive, 12 Governor races are highlighted below. A total of 36 governorships are up for election in 2022. Democrats are anticipated to pick up two governorships in solid-Democrat states, Gov. Charlie Baker (R) of Massachusetts is retiring and Gov. Larry Hogan (R) of Maryland is term limited.

2022 Competitive Governor’s Races

State

Incumbent/Leading Candidates

PVI

Expert Predictions

Arizona

Open Seat; Katie Hobbs (D), Kari Lake (R)

D, +1.2

Toss-up

Kansas

Laura Kelly (D)

D, +2.8

Lean Democrat

Wisconsin

Tony Evers (D)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Oregon

Open Seat; Tina Kotek (D), Christine Drazan (R)

D, +3

Lean Democrat

Nevada

Steve Sisolak (D)

D, +3.2

Lean Democrat

Georgia

Brian Kemp (R)

R, +7.4

Lean Republican

New Mexico

Michelle Lujan Grisham

D, +3

Likely Democrat

Pennsylvania

Open Seat; Josh Shapiro (D), Doug Mastriano (R)

D, +8.2

Likely Democrat

Maine

Janet Mills (D)

D, +8.4

Likely Democrat

Florida

Ron DeSantis (R)

R, +9.3

Likely Republican

Michigan

Gretchen Whitmer (D)

D, +10.5

Likely Democrat

Texas

Greg Abbot (R)

R, +11.1

Likely Republican

Congress Passes Short-Term Funding Bill

With hours to spare, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through December 16th, 2022.  This bill temporarily extends FY-2022 funding levels for anything funded through the appropriations process. In addition, and among other provisions, this bill:

  • Provides $12 billion in emergency assistance for Ukraine.

  • Injects $18 billion into FEMA’s disaster relief fund for various states recovering from natural disasters across the country (Florida, Alaska, and Puerto Rico).

  • Includes $2 billion in Community Development Block Grants to help communities recovering from major disasters.

  • Extends several HHS and Veterans Affairs programs.

  • Reauthorizes the FDA’s user fees relating to drugs, devices, generic drugs, biosimilar biological products, and various other programs and grants.

It is also important to note what is absent from this CR. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) withdrew his energy permitting overhaul proposal, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022, because it was an issue of contention for members in both parties. Majority Leader Schumer had previously agreed to allow this to be included in the CR in order to gain Manchin’s vote for the Inflation Reduction Act.  This may again get put on the table for discussion during the lame duck session.  You can read more about Manchin’s proposal here.

The short-term funding bill reauthorizes user fee programs, but unlike previous user fee packages, it does not include any of the policy riders that were included in the House’s Food and Drug Amendments of 2022 or the Senate’s FDA Safety and Landmark Advancements Act of 2022.  It is yet to be determined which of the stripped policy riders will be included in an omnibus package at the end of the year. You can read more about reauthorization here.

After passing the CR, Leader Schumer announced that the Senate would not reconvene until the second week of November, thus canceling two weeks of October session. The House is not scheduled to return until the third week of November.

Scott L. Klug and Michael K. Crossen also contributed to this article.

© 2022 Foley & Lardner LLPNational Law Review, Volume XII, Number 276
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About this Author

Dennis A. Cardoza, public affairs director, Foley Lardner, law firm
Director, Public Affairs

Dennis A. Cardoza is a public affairs director, co-chair of the Federal Public Affairs Practice and chair of the California Public Affairs Practice of Foley & Lardner LLP. He advises a broad range of clients on legislative, regulatory, and public policy and advocacy matters, and has extensive policy experience with respect to water resource, banking, housing, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, education, foreign affairs, and health care issues.

202-295-4015
Jennifer F. Walsh, public affairs director, Foley law firm
Director, Public Affairs

Jennifer F. Walsh is a public affairs director with Foley & Lardner LLP. She has extensive experience in government affairs, including a lengthy career as a senior staffer in the U.S. Congress and the California Legislature, and as a vice president for Federal Government Affairs at a top 20 Fortune 500 health care company. Ms. Walsh has effectively advanced key issues before the United States Senate, House of Representatives and the Administration. She is a member of the firm’s Government & Public Policy Practice.

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William Ball Public Affairs Director Foley and Lardner
Dir, Public Affairs

William “Bill” Ball is a public affairs director with Foley & Lardner LLP. He is a member of the Government & Public Policy Practice in Washington, D.C.

Bill comes to Foley with a decade of experience on Capitol Hill where he worked with House and Senate Committees on energy, natural resources, water and infrastructure issues. Most recently, he served as the deputy staff director for the House Committee on Natural Resources where he led the committee in numerous bicameral negotiations on major legislative packages such as the Water Resources Development Act (P.L. 115-270),...

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Jared Rifis Public Affairs Advisor Foley & Lardner
Public Affairs Advisor Sr

Jared Rifis is a senior public affairs advisor in the Washington, D.C. office of Foley & Lardner LLP. He represents clients and their legislative priorities before Congress and the Administration. Jared supports the firm’s Government Solutions Practice with research, analysis, and advocacy that advance each client’s public policy goals.

Prior to joining Foley, Jared served in various roles in Congress, most recently serving as a judiciary and commerce advisor to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. He was an effective advisor with a broad...

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Kate M. Kros Public Affairs Advisor Foley & Lardner LLP
Public Affairs Advisor

Kate Kros is a public affairs advisor with Foley & Lardner LLP and supports the firm’s Government Solutions Practice Group with research, communications, advocacy and compliance work, while acting as the Foley PAC assistant treasurer. Kate has a decade of experience supporting nonprofit organizations with federal grassroots advocacy, development and event planning.

Prior to joining Foley, Kate worked at Soapbox Consulting for eight years and led successful advocacy days for over 80 non-profit organizations, trade associations and corporations on an annual or biannual basis. Just...

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